Bench Coach

The smartest guy in the dugout.
Real-time MLB win probability and betting edge detection, updated pitch by pitch.

Model Calibration

2024 Backtest·Full season held out from training — no look-ahead.

87.9% accurate on high-confidence calls across 43,236 inning-by-inning predictions. Brier 0.1636.

2025 Backtest·Second consecutive full season out-of-sample — model trained 2010–2024.

88.6% accurate on high-confidence calls across 43,219 inning-by-inning predictions. Brier 0.1624.

2026 Live·Season-to-date, through 2026-05-09.

88.1% accurate on high-confidence calls across 3,794 inning-by-inning predictions. Brier 0.1673.

Brier score measures calibration error — 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip. Accuracy when confidentis the model's hit rate on calls it rated ≥70% probability.

2.6M
Plate appearances trained
83.3%
Mean confident accuracy
75
Lead-aware Markov states
5K
Simulations per query
01

Win Probability

Every game state modeled through a 75-state lead-aware Markov chain. Know who's winning and by how much, updated with every pitch. Not a gut feeling. Math.

02

+EV Detection

Live odds from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM compared against our model. When the books are wrong, you'll know first. Edge magnitude, best price, Kelly sizing.

03

The Scorebook

A digital scorebook that tracks every play with authentic notation. Backward K for called strikes, filled diamonds for runs scored, cross-at-bat runner tracking. The way the game was meant to be kept.

How It Works

Step 1

The Model Watches

Every pitch updates the game state. Our engine calculates win probability across 5,000 simulated outcomes.

Step 2

The Books Set Lines

Sportsbooks publish odds based on their own models and the betting market. We pull them in real time.

Step 3

You See the Edge

When our model disagrees with the market by more than 3%, Bench Coach flags it. You decide whether to act.

Opening Day 2026. The book is open.

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