The smartest guy in the dugout.
Real-time MLB win probability and betting edge detection, updated pitch by pitch.
2024 Backtest·Full season held out from training — no look-ahead.
87.9% accurate on high-confidence calls across 43,236 inning-by-inning predictions. Brier 0.1636.
2025 Backtest·Second consecutive full season out-of-sample — model trained 2010–2024.
88.6% accurate on high-confidence calls across 43,219 inning-by-inning predictions. Brier 0.1624.
2026 Live·Season-to-date, through 2026-05-09.
88.1% accurate on high-confidence calls across 3,794 inning-by-inning predictions. Brier 0.1673.
Brier score measures calibration error — 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip. Accuracy when confidentis the model's hit rate on calls it rated ≥70% probability.
Every game state modeled through a 75-state lead-aware Markov chain. Know who's winning and by how much, updated with every pitch. Not a gut feeling. Math.
Live odds from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM compared against our model. When the books are wrong, you'll know first. Edge magnitude, best price, Kelly sizing.
A digital scorebook that tracks every play with authentic notation. Backward K for called strikes, filled diamonds for runs scored, cross-at-bat runner tracking. The way the game was meant to be kept.
Every pitch updates the game state. Our engine calculates win probability across 5,000 simulated outcomes.
Sportsbooks publish odds based on their own models and the betting market. We pull them in real time.
When our model disagrees with the market by more than 3%, Bench Coach flags it. You decide whether to act.
Opening Day 2026. The book is open.
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